Sept. 10: Kane's 73 Goals Rewrite Records, But Ballon d'Or Bid Faces Teammate Doubts? Olise and Bellingham Unconvinced

Scoring 73 goals in 65 matches in a single season, winning the domestic treble of the Bundesliga, German Cup and German Super Cup, and also finishing third at the World Cup. By any standard, such numbers would normally make a Ballon d'Or win almost certain, but Harry Kane in 2026 has become the most awkward leading favorite.

Teammate Olise shook his head after training, Bellingham and Rice were reportedly frustrated in the England dressing room, and even French legend Petit openly criticized him: “When the truly difficult moments arrive, he disappears.” More surprisingly, the Ballon d'Or rules were changed to prioritize individual performance over trophies, but can the 100 voting journalists really ignore the influence of a World Cup title? On Oct. 26 in London, who will win the ultimate battle between the “stats king” and the “champions’ side”?

On Sept. 8, 2026, shortly after the Ballon d'Or 30-man shortlist was announced, the odds market exploded. Harry Kane led by a wide margin with extremely low odds of 1.61, while prediction platform Polymarket gave him a 64% chance of winning, leaving second-place Yamal (15%) far behind. Based purely on these numbers, Kane appears deserving of the praise.

Throughout the 2025-26 season, he made 51 appearances for Bayern Munich, scoring 61 goals and providing 7 assists. He scored 14 goals in 13 Champions League matches and 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga games, including a hat-trick in the German Cup final, helping Bayern win the Bundesliga, German Cup and German Super Cup. Individually, he claimed both the Bundesliga Golden Boot and the European Golden Shoe.

At the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico, Kane scored six goals in seven matches, overtaking Lineker to become England's all-time World Cup top scorer and helping the team finish third. Combining club and national-team matches, he recorded 73 goals and 8 assists in 65 games, a figure surpassed only by Messi's 82-goal 2011-12 season among 21st-century records.

The problem lies in the phrase “team honors.” A large portion of Kane's 73 goals came in league matches, and his number of decisive goals in major clashes was not as overwhelming as the statistics suggest. Bayern lost 3-2 on aggregate to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League semifinals, while England lost to Argentina in the World Cup semifinals, with both major competitions ending at the last-four stage.

Petit, a member of France's 1998 World Cup-winning team, told the Mirror without holding back: “If you only look at the Bundesliga, Kane has no problem. But in the Champions League and with the national team, when the really difficult moments come, he disappears. In the second leg against PSG in the Champions League semifinal, Kane only scored an equalizer in stoppage time and could not prevent Bayern's elimination; in the World Cup semifinal against Argentina, he also failed to step up. His Ballon d'Or chance is over.”

More subtly, not everyone around Kane appears convinced. Bayern's Olise delivered several decisive assists in key matches during the season and set career highs statistically, yet he was not even included on the Ballon d'Or shortlist. Some media outlets reported that he was seen shaking his head while talking with teammates after training, suggesting he did not accept Kane's current leading position.

For England, Bellingham, valued at 160 million euros, and Rice, valued at 120 million euros, contributed just as much as Kane in terms of appearances and key performances at the World Cup and club level. Their interceptions, progression and late runs into the box were crucial to England securing third place. Yet they rank far behind Kane in Ballon d'Or odds, with Bellingham at 34 and Rice dropping to 101. Different opinions within the national team are therefore unavoidable.

Kane's biggest uncertainty lies in the Ballon d'Or voting rules. On March 11, 2022, France Football revised the criteria, ranking them by importance as: first, individual performance, decisive impact and impressive qualities; second, team performance and honors; third, sportsmanship and fair play. On Sept. 8, 2026, when announcing the shortlist, officials reiterated that individual performance comes before championship honors.

Under that logic, Kane's 73 goals should earn the highest score, but the question is whether the 100 professional journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked countries can truly escape the “champion bias” when voting. Historical data shows that among 21 top-three Ballon d'Or places over the last seven World Cups, World Cup champions occupied nearly half (48%). The deep-rooted belief in champions cannot easily be erased by a rule change.

Looking at the other leading candidates, their weaknesses may actually be more obvious than Kane's. Last year's Ballon d'Or winner Dembele publicly suggested the award would return to a Paris Saint-Germain player, but his own season statistics and team honors do not fully support that claim, and most voters are unlikely to place him in their top three.

Rodri produced a dominant midfield performance at the World Cup, led his team all the way and won the World Cup Golden Ball, but his club season was disrupted by injuries. His league and Champions League availability was only slightly above 60%, and neither his team achievements nor personal statistics provide enough support for a Ballon d'Or-level challenge.

Mbappe's personal statistics are also outstanding. His total goals for the season were only two fewer than Kane's, and he scored 10 goals in eight World Cup matches to win the Golden Boot and become the World Cup's all-time top scorer. However, Real Madrid struggled in key competitions, he missed a decisive penalty in a crucial match, and the club ended the season without major trophies, leaving him with greater team-honor weaknesses than Kane.

Instead, Spain's World Cup-winning group poses the biggest threat to Kane. Nineteen-year-old Yamal recorded only 24 goals and 17 assists, far below Kane's 73 goals, but he holds both La Liga and World Cup titles, ranking second in the odds at 5.5. Rodri, as the World Cup's best player, ranks fourth with odds of 9.

More importantly, Spain also has players like Ferran Torres, who scored a winning goal in the 106th minute of the World Cup final. Such a moment that changes the destination of a championship represents the ultimate example of “decisive impact” in the new Ballon d'Or criteria. If voters strictly follow the principle of prioritizing individual performance, Kane's 73 goals have the advantage; but if they cannot escape the instinctive admiration for World Cup champions, Spain's contenders could complete a comeback through the combination of title success and key performances.

One more detail is worth noting. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony will be held on Oct. 26 in London, marking the first time the award has been hosted away from the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris since 2019. Kane was born and raised in London. It could be viewed as a home advantage, but if he fails to win on home ground, the scene could be even more awkward than a ceremony in Paris.

There is still one and a half months before Oct. 26, and voting by the 100 global journalists has only just begun. The outcome remains highly uncertain. Kane is only temporarily leading the odds and has not secured victory. If another candidate receives convincing industry support or the voting sentiment changes, the final result could still be reversed.