Kane's Ballon d'Or Odds Reach 63.5% After Matching Messi-Level Scoring Record, Ending England's 25-Year Wait

Bayern Munich forward Harry Kane is undoubtedly among the leading candidates for the 2026 Ballon d'Or. According to the 30-player shortlist announced on September 8 local time and the latest winning probabilities, Kane leads by a wide margin with a 63.5% chance of winning. Behind this attention is a number that could be remembered in football history: 73 goals in the previous season. The Ballon d'Or ceremony will be held in London for the first time on October 26, marking a major moment for football's highest individual honor.

73 goals, a legendary figure second only to Messi

Kane scored 73 goals in total for club and country last season. For Bayern Munich, he made 51 appearances and scored 61 goals, including 36 in the Bundesliga, 10 in the German Cup, 14 in the Champions League, and one in the Super Cup. He also made 14 appearances for England and scored 12 goals, including six at the World Cup finals, five in qualifiers, and one in friendlies. Across 65 matches, he achieved the remarkable feat of averaging more than one goal per game.

Looking at football history as a whole, this figure is extraordinary, ranking only behind Messi's 82 goals for Barcelona and Argentina in the 2011-12 season, making it the second-highest single-season total of this century and surpassing Cristiano Ronaldo's career-best single-season tally of 69 goals. In an interview with Hargreaves for TNT Sports, Kane said he could hardly believe the numbers, joking that 'maybe even PlayStation couldn't do this.' Of his 73 goals, 43 were scored directly from a single touch, highlighting the striker's efficient finishing ability.

At 33, he is now at his peak

Born in 1993, Kane is now 33 years old. He confidently stated that he is currently at the peak of his career: 'My body is in a very good place, and mentally I am as well.' During the season, he helped Bayern retain the Bundesliga title, won the first German Cup of his career, and claimed the Beckenbauer Super Cup, completing a three-trophy haul. His 36 Bundesliga goals earned him a third consecutive Bundesliga Golden Boot, and his total goals across two Bundesliga seasons reached 98 in just 94 matches. He also won the European Golden Shoe, finishing nine goals ahead of second-placed Haaland. In the Champions League, Kane ranked second on the scoring chart with 14 goals and helped Bayern reach the semifinals.

His national team performances have also been impressive. In World Cup qualifying, Kane scored five goals in five matches, helping England qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a perfect record. At this World Cup, he scored another six goals and helped England finish third, their best major tournament result in 60 years since 1966. He has shown career-best form on both the club and international stages.

A 63.5% winning probability puts him in a class of his own

In the 30-player Ballon d'Or shortlist announced on September 8, Kane ranked first without surprise, with a winning probability of 63.5%. Second-place Yamal had only 14.2%, while Messi had just a 2% chance. As the gap grows, Kane appears close to securing the award. Although other stars such as Mbappe and Rodri are also among the nominees, challenging Kane's position in the short term will be difficult.

The Ballon d'Or's 70th anniversary coincides with this edition, and the ceremony will move to London for the first time on October 26. The evaluation period covers August 3, 2025, to July 19, 2026, which includes Kane's 73-goal season. Kane has openly expressed his desire for the award, saying in an interview: 'Without doubt, I am incredibly proud of my performances last season. I was once just a fan hoping for a professional career, and now I have finally reached this achievement.'

Of course, competition remains. Although Bayern stopped in the Champions League semifinals, England's World Cup result was only third place rather than champions. These factors have led some media outlets to question Kane's team honors. However, thanks to his outstanding individual statistics, Kane still holds a clear advantage in predictions from various organizations.

A 25-year wait

If Kane eventually lifts the trophy, he will become the first English player to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001. The 25-year wait gives the award significance beyond personal achievement, and Kane feels the weight of history. He grew up during the era dominated by Messi and Ronaldo, watching them continuously break records, and now finds himself among the leading scorers in history. Kane reflected: 'I think if this does not truly make me feel the reality of it, perhaps it will still take some time.'