Champions League Round 1: Arsenal in red-hot form with consecutive wins, De Bruyne left fighting alone, prediction 2-1 against Napoli

35-year-old De Bruyne has breached the Gunners' goal eight times; tonight he has to carry Napoli alone into a clash with the Premier League champions.

The opponent De Bruyne has always enjoyed playing the most is Arsenal.

They have met 22 times in his career, and he has scored 8 goals, making them the team he has scored against the most, with no equal. In the league alone he has 8 goals and 4 assists in 14 matches, while his last three meetings produced 3 goals and 2 assists. In the 2019/20 season away win, his long-range strike helped secure a 3-0 victory; in the 2022/23 season's 4-1 win, he scored twice and assisted once, with Ramsdale beaten twice by his low shots.

But looking through the account of these eight goals tonight feels somewhat bittersweet.

He is 35 years old and only returned on August 5, and he has not yet completed many full matches. For Napoli's midfield, McTominay is out for a period of the season after heart surgery, Anguissa also cannot play after a pre-match adductor issue, and Allegri confirmed himself that “there will be no tactical changes because the players are not there.” The center-back situation is worse: Buongiorno and Marianucci both have knee injuries and were not even included in the Champions League squad, Giovane underwent hernia surgery, and Neres still faces a pre-match fitness gamble.

The players who can stand beside De Bruyne are Lobotka and the promoted Gilmour.

Who are they facing? Arsenal, who have won four straight matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 1.

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Arsenal's current form has been built by grinding out results one match at a time.

They beat Manchester City 3-0 in the Community Shield, then opened the Premier League with 3-0 against Coventry, 1-0 against Villa and a 2-1 comeback win over Chelsea. The Chelsea match was especially interesting: only 77 seconds in, Morgan Rogers' low volley silenced the Emirates. However, Havertz equalized with an inside-cut low shot in the 25th minute, and Odegaard fired in from a Tzolis assist in the 50th minute to complete the comeback. Across three phases, the defending champions never panicked.

After three Premier League rounds, only Manchester City and Arsenal remain perfect, both with 9 points. Arsenal have scored 6 and conceded 1, with all six goals coming from open play and none from corner situations — something that would have been unimaginable last season.

They spent €227 million in the summer window, with a net investment of €162 million. They signed Brazil captain Guimaraes from Newcastle for €87.5 million; he recorded 31 goals and 32 assists in 195 Newcastle appearances, and Arteta had pursued him for four and a half years. They bought Greek winger Tzolis from Club Brugge for €40 million; he had 17 goals and 23 assists in the Belgian league last season and delivered two assists on his Community Shield debut. They signed Konsa for €59.6 million and bought out Inkapie for €40 million.

This is Guimaraes' value: previously, when Arsenal faced high pressing, they could only rely on center-backs moving inside or Odegaard dropping back to receive the ball. Now they have someone in midfield who can receive under pressure and turn away to carry the ball forward. Rice has been freed into the left No. 8 role, bringing out his forward-driving ability.

But do not assume Arsenal are complete.

Saliba has a back injury, Timber a groin issue, and Mosquera a muscle injury, leaving three defenders unavailable. Gabriel and Konsa form a new partnership, while Ben White has to cover the right side. More troublesome is that the team's flight to Naples was delayed, reducing pre-match recovery time. The away possession rhythm Arteta wants is limited by center-back depth.

Looking at Napoli, the atmosphere is completely different.

Allegri replaced Conte in July this year, signing until 2029 with an annual salary of €4.5 million. He has six Serie A titles and the most league championships among active coaches. However, the team he inherited, last season's Serie A runners-up, have one win and two defeats after three league matches, sitting around 12th or 13th place.

The 1-2 home defeat to Como was his first home match in charge of Napoli, and they were punished by two consecutive shots 20 seconds before halftime. Then at the San Siro they led Inter 2-0 and still held a two-goal advantage in the 53rd minute, before eventually losing 3-2 after Inter's comeback. Allegri admitted: “We played naively against Inter.” Their off-ball coordination was poor, and defensive positioning and second-ball protection had many gaps.

At the pre-match press conference he lowered expectations: this is a completely different competition from Serie A, a small league made up of eight matches, and around 12 points are probably needed to guarantee direct qualification. We know we face the Premier League winners and a European competition finalist; Arteta has done an extraordinary job over the past four years.

Interestingly, Arsenal and Napoli met in the 2013/14 Champions League group stage, with each side winning 2-0 at home. In Arsenal's away defeat, Arteta was sent off with a red card. More than a decade later, the man who received that red card is now the head coach standing in the away technical area.

The two teams have met four times in competitive matches, with Arsenal winning three, and all three victories came with clean sheets. Arsenal also eliminated Napoli in the 2018/19 Europa League quarter-finals.

Napoli's only major source of confidence is home advantage. They have lost only two of their last 21 Champions League home matches at the Maradona Stadium, and their European home record against English teams is 8 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in 13 games. This venue has never feared English opponents.

Before the match starts, betting odds give Arsenal a win price of 1.62, a draw at 3.40 and a Napoli win at 4.58.

Arsenal remain with their 4-2-3-1 structure: Raya in goal, Ben White, Konsa, Gabriel and Inkapie across the back line, Rice and Guimaraes as the double pivot, with Saka, Odegaard and Tzolis behind Havertz. The attacking and midfield areas push forward through running and pressing, the two holding midfielders protect the center, inverted wingers cut inside, full-backs move inward, and they repeatedly create situations around the edge of the box. They pay close attention to the distances between their three lines and do not stretch the formation even when dominating.

Napoli use a 4-3-3: Meret in goal, Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Rafa Marin and Spinazzola, Lobotka, De Bruyne and Gilmour in midfield, with Politano, Hojlund and Santos up front. Allegri wants layered progression, a slower tempo, and defensive coverage through collective positioning.

The problem is clear — Lobotka is more technical, Gilmour has limited defensive experience, De Bruyne is an attacking player moving forward, and Napoli's midfield lacks a strong ball-winning presence. If Arsenal's high press continues, Napoli's buildup from the back could make mistakes at any moment.

Arsenal's defensive problems are also specific: Gabriel can sometimes step up and lose position, while Konsa has only recently arrived and their defensive coordination is not fully developed. Hojlund's physical threat, De Bruyne's through balls and set pieces will target this side. Saka repeatedly attacks the left half-space, stretching Napoli's shape, then uses set pieces to test the makeshift center-back pairing.

If De Bruyne starts, Napoli's final pass in transitions from defense to attack will improve. He only returned in August, and how well he has connected with Hojlund and the wide players will only become clear in the first half-hour after kickoff.

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