Three Golden Boots in One Year: Can They Be Exchanged for a Ballon d'Or?

This question is explored from an objective perspective, without any subjective emotion or bias. As nearly three quarters of 2026 have passed, following the intense competition of last season and the ups and downs of the World Cup, the situation has gradually become clearer. The only unresolved issue in the second half of the year is how to determine the Ballon d'Or winner from this calm landscape.

This year's Ballon d'Or race is exceptionally complex, with a clear division among contenders and relatively scattered shares of support, something that may be rare in more than a decade. When discussing 2024, although Vinicius Junior and Rodri were competing, the performances of others clearly failed to pose a serious threat. This year, the influence of the World Cup has diluted many players' outstanding club performances, causing many potential candidates to face varying degrees of disadvantage.

Currently, Kane is considered the most likely player to win the Ballon d'Or. His performances at Bayern have been almost perfect, but compared with La Liga and the Premier League, the competitiveness of the Bundesliga is considered less convincing. Moreover, regardless of how strong Bayern have been, they ultimately failed to win the Champions League.

As for the World Cup, Kane's performance was certainly not poor, but it was not particularly spectacular either. His goal tally for England was even lower than Bellingham's, making his performances on the biggest stage appear somewhat ordinary. Although the third-place playoff may seem insignificant, scoring in such a match is still a way to showcase ability.

Next comes Mbappe. Whenever he is mentioned, many people think of the controversial label of being a “Real Madrid burden,” claiming that he disrupted the team's quality structure, focused too much on personal statistics and dragged down the squad. However, Ballon d'Or evaluation is not limited to these discussions; it focuses more on the statistics themselves. When no player demonstrates absolute dominance, votes naturally become more divided.

Although Real Madrid had a poor season and France only finished fourth at the World Cup, Mbappe won three Golden Boots over the past year: the La Liga Golden Boot, the Champions League Golden Boot and the World Cup Golden Boot. With three such awards in hand, can he exchange them for a Ballon d'Or? Mbappe recently expressed his desire for the award, and although those comments were mocked, the three Golden Boots have indeed provided him with strong credentials in the race.

As mentioned earlier, Kane's weaknesses are the perceived lower competitiveness of the Bundesliga and Bayern's Champions League result. At the World Cup, Mbappe's performance was actually better. Although Yamal won both La Liga and the World Cup, his individual performance did not reach the very top level. As for Rodri, although some highlight his importance to his team, the Ballon d'Or places more emphasis on direct statistical impact. Looking back at his performances, Rodri's form at Manchester City declined compared with before, making it difficult for him to replicate past success.

Regardless of whether I am a Messi supporter, it can be stated without doubt that Messi scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists in 8 World Cup matches, and it would indeed be difficult to understand if he could not win the Ballon d'Or. If Rodri benefited from controlling Spain's midfield and winning the Ballon d'Or again, the possibility would actually be extremely difficult.

Mbappe winning the La Liga Golden Boot alone cannot be considered the direct reason for Real Madrid's failure to win the title. In the Champions League, although Real Madrid were eliminated in the quarter-finals, Mbappe still remained unchallenged at the top of the scoring charts. At the World Cup, he also became the tournament's all-time leading scorer, a distinction that may add significant weight to his Ballon d'Or case.

Although Kane currently leads the Ballon d'Or rankings, Mbappe winning three Golden Boots in one year is an asset that cannot be ignored. Overall, in the current relatively balanced competitive landscape, this possibility is worth anticipating.