From Relegation Candidates to CSL Dark Horses: Chongqing Tongliang Long on 30 Points and Near Safety, Liu Jianye’s Decisions Under Spotlight

From relegation candidates to Chinese Super League dark horses! Chongqing Tongliang Long sit seventh with 30 points and are nearly safe from relegation. Can we understand Liu Jianye’s recent moves?

Who could have expected it? Chongqing Tongliang Long, viewed as relegation candidates before the season, had collected 30 points and ranked seventh after 23 rounds, with their theoretical relegation probability down to just 0.72%.

The promoted side has become a team that many established clubs would envy.

Looking back to March, Chongqing football returned to the CSL after 1,494 days, drawing 0-0 away against Tianjin Jinmen Tiger in the opening match. Few people expected much from this young squad. Head coach Liu Jianye was a former international player, but this was his first time leading a CSL team as a head coach. General manager Li Ping publicly said the goal was to establish themselves in the CSL and avoid relegation, though pressure was likely present internally.

However, five wins and three draws in the first eight rounds without a loss completely overturned outside predictions.

The team earned 18 points, second only to Chengdu Rongcheng, and ranked second. They conceded only six goals in eight matches, kept four clean sheets, and ranked third in goal difference. The first-team squad averaged 24.3 years old, making it one of the youngest teams in the league. Liu Jianye was still under 39 at the time.

The phrase “youth storm” was brought to life by these young Chongqing players.

But football can change quickly; the sweetness of the first half of the season can become pressure later.

After 21 rounds, problems began to appear. The five-defender system and reliance on counterattacks and set pieces were gradually figured out by opponents. The team went seven matches without a win, suffered three straight defeats, and dropped from second place to seventh.

Some Chongqing fans worried: “What if we lose all of the final eight matches? Could we be relegated?” Other supporters quickly disagreed, saying the possibility was already extremely low.

Data from August 14 showed Chongqing had 29 points in seventh place, 14 points ahead of second-bottom Wuhan Three Towns. With eight matches and 24 possible points remaining, even if Wuhan Three Towns won every game, Chongqing would need to take no more points while three other teams also produced extreme results across multiple matches. It was close to mathematically impossible.

Ultimately, the advantage built during the first half of the season is the biggest reason the team can remain confident today.

After two postponed matches were completed on August 20, the latest standings showed Chengdu Rongcheng first with 48 points, Guoan second with 35, Chongqing Tongliang Long seventh with 30, and Qingdao Hainiu bottom of the relegation zone with 14 points.

Eight teams were still fighting desperately against relegation, while Tongliang Long, once considered a major relegation candidate, had moved into a safe position.

However, it is too early to label Liu Jianye a top-class manager; the story is not that simple.

After the five-defender system was understood by opponents, the team’s adjustments became a focus. Some analysis suggested Liu Jianye’s tactical approach lacked variation: whether during the strong first half or the difficult second half, the 541 formation remained stable, with defensive discipline and physical battles against opponents. The system was effective early on, but as results declined and Kempanu struggled for form, opponents only needed to block his inward runs.

Put positively, it is stability; more critically, it is a lack of solutions.

Some views suggested that without a points deduction, and with one more match played, Chongqing would only lead third-bottom Liaoning Iron Man by three points, which would reflect the level of a typical relegation battler. The poor second-half results are not only about form; the team’s overall quality is still below that of CSL contenders.

The argument may sound harsh, but it is difficult to completely dismiss.

The real test will come next year.

This season, the team assembled a starting lineup capable of competing in the CSL. With limited finances and a mid-to-lower level investment, they relied on young players’ energy and Liu Jianye’s ideas to stay among the competitive group. But if they qualify for the AFC Champions League Two, a thin squad may struggle to handle two competitions and could face a genuine relegation battle next year.

So what exactly must Chongqing prove in the final seven rounds?

Will they continue relying on the 541 system to secure safety, or will Liu Jianye make tactical changes during the second-half slump and show whether this dark horse is truly sustainable?

In my view, Liu Jianye has shown ability, but it is still too early to call him a legendary coach. The first eight rounds benefited from the energy and fitness of young players; in the second half, opponents learned the team’s patterns while the team failed to change quickly enough, which may be the root cause of the seven-match winless run.

Some fans believe Chongqing’s priority is clear: secure the relegation target first, then discuss tactical upgrades.

That makes sense. But if a five-defender system lasts from the first round to the thirtieth, opponents will study it even more deeply next year. What will the team rely on to win matches then?

Young players such as Zhang Zhixiong, Li Zhenquan, Xiang Yuwang and Kempanu all have talent. As the person in charge, can Liu Jianye introduce new ideas during adversity?

The August 23 home match against Dalian Yingbo will be an important observation point. CCTV5 will broadcast the game. It is Dalian’s final match of a three-game away stretch, while Chongqing have the advantage of rest, with a younger squad and greater physical freshness. Whether Amadou can play will affect midfield intensity. The matchup between Mao Weijie and Kempanu is also worth watching.

A win would end the slump and keep their hopes of an AFC Champions League place alive. A draw or defeat could weaken the “youth storm” label.

Looking back at those who considered Tongliang Long relegation candidates before the season, would they now be surprised?

Perhaps not. Those who understand football know that this year’s success does not guarantee next year’s safety. The CSL remains highly competitive.

Nevertheless, a promoted team once viewed as lacking strength now sits seventh with 30 points and is nearly clear of relegation trouble. Liu Jianye and his average 24-year-old squad have achieved something impressive.

Whether the team can return to the top four in the final seven rounds or even reach an AFC Champions League qualification spot remains to be seen.

The answer will come later — can Tongliang Long, built around a five-defender system, surprise the CSL once again?